NHL Draft Analytics Released

In the wake of the 2017 NHL Entry draft, we have collected some longitudinal data in relation to draft picks entering the NHL.  Based off of TSN STATS and several data inputs this table shows hypothetical value based on previous seasons data. What can obviously be ascertained is that the higher the pick, the larger chance the players will succeed in at the NHL level. That being said there are some statistically significant findings, IE the #2 Overall pick has proven larger returns in the long run for teams in this study. Obviously it is a small sample size, and the scaling is subject to error. As well the scale system does not account for positional changed as well as the number of available positions on each team. IE less spots for goalies to break into the league than forwards.

On a 1-10 Scale, these are the rankings based off of results of players drafted from this time period.

10 – Generational
9 – Elite Player, any position.
8 – First Line, Top Pair D
7 – Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 – Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 – NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games
4 – Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games
3 – Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
2 – Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 – 10 or fewer NHL games

 

RELATED ARTICLES

NHL Arbitration Explained

NHL Playoff Bonuses Released

 

DRAFT PICK VALUE CHART, 1990-2013

PICK AVG. RATING % PLAY 100 GP TOP 6 F, TOP 4 D, 1 G 4TH LINE OR WORSE
1 7.75 100.0% 79.2% 8.3%
2 7.79 100.0% 87.5% 0.0%
3 7.06 100.0% 79.2% 8.3%
4 6.21 83.3% 54.2% 25.0%
5 6.75 100.0% 62.5% 8.3%
6 5.63 83.3% 58.3% 41.7%
7 5.77 91.7% 41.7% 33.3%
8 4.88 70.8% 29.2% 45.8%
9 5.40 87.5% 33.3% 50.0%
10 4.52 78.3% 13.0% 65.2%
11 4.79 66.7% 33.3% 50.0%
12 5.19 79.2% 41.7% 50.0%
13 5.17 66.7% 37.5% 41.7%
14 5.25 87.5% 37.5% 41.7%
15 3.42 41.7% 16.7% 75.0%
16 4.19 66.7% 20.8% 70.8%
17 4.37 69.6% 21.7% 56.5%
18 4.21 70.8% 20.8% 62.5%
19 4.44 62.5% 29.2% 58.3%
20 4.83 75.0% 29.2% 54.2%
21 4.35 62.5% 16.7% 58.3%
22 3.79 54.2% 20.8% 70.8%
23 4.81 70.8% 33.3% 50.0%
24 4.31 62.5% 29.2% 62.5%
25 3.60 54.2% 8.3% 75.0%
26 4.46 75.0% 25.0% 50.0%
27 3.96 62.5% 16.7% 62.5%
28 3.71 50.0% 20.8% 75.0%
29 3.38 37.5% 8.3% 79.2%
30 3.48 45.8% 16.7% 75.0%
31-35 2.71 29.2% 10.8% 85.0%
36-40 2.93 35.0% 11.7% 81.7%
41-45 3.08 40.8% 12.5% 73.3%
46-50 2.76 34.2% 10.8% 81.7%
51-55 2.71 32.5% 10.0% 81.7%
56-60 2.48 30.8% 6.7% 88.3%
61-70 2.56 32.2% 7.5% 86.6%
71-80 2.40 27.1% 8.3% 85.4%
81-90 2.15 24.6% 6.7% 89.2%
91-100 2.11 23.8% 4.6% 89.6%
101-110 1.89 18.8% 4.2% 92.5%
111-120 1.72 14.6% 4.2% 94.1%
121-135 1.84 15.6% 4.2% 91.9%
136-150 1.68 13.6% 3.1% 93.9%
151-165 1.79 15.6% 4.4% 91.4%
166-180 1.70 14.7% 2.2% 93.6%
181-195 1.52 9.4% 1.9% 96.7%
196-210 1.45 8.3% 2.2% 96.1%
211+ 1.61 12.0% 3.2% 94.4%

 

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